G20 Expectations

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Expectations for the upcoming summit in Sydney are a combination of wishes for emerging markets to get their countries in order and wishes for the US to deal with ramifications of further easing of its almost trillion dollar stimulus. Smaller side talks between countries are being highlighted as possible bright spots for the February 22nd to the 23rd meetings.

Early reporting from the Group of 20 opening letter from President Tony Abbott, outlined areas of focus for the 2014 Australian chairmanship. These twenty nations, including the EU, represent close to 67% of the worlds population and in excess of 85% of the globes Gross World Product. The focus will be on boosting global trade, inter country and general foreign direct investments, employment issues as a slow down seems evident in emerging markets and competitive practices of some of the developing countries.

The US appears to be continuing the Bernanke paradigm of targeting the unemployment rate of 6.5% and keeping track of an inflation rate target of 2%  and the Fed will respond to general conditions as the Federal Reserve sees  it. As the IMF has noted the developed countries have recovered well in 2013, thus the targets from the Fed are approaching the points where a larger scale stopping of easing will occur. Despite a stellar year for equities in the world’s largest economy, the Dow Jones Index gained 26.5% for 2013, emerging markets have suffered from weak demand, currency issues and unrest in places, such as, Thailand, Ukraine and Caracas. The Treasury appears ready to, proverbially, strike when the iron is hot or push for growth while the momentum is favoring the US expansion. Consequently, currency issues are a serious problem for emerging countries because of the dislocation of capital created by the past fives years of stimulus and although China had better than anticipated results since January, the GDP and growth rates were off their highs and showing signs of a moderating of China’s torrid pace of high growth for the past decade and a half. Combining these issues, the two economic major powers are having impacts on developing countries. Therefore, we expect broad stroke demands from emerging markets on the US and China.

Times of India is reporting on the desire for the Australian government to rekindle ties with one of the largest markets in the world, India. Past talks regarding uranium being supplied to India hit snags when party officials in Australia felt uneasy about supplying material to a country who is a non-signatory to the non-proliferation treaty. Excellent analysis of military and territorial conflicts in East and South Asia can be found here – http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Australia-seeks-to-draw-India-into-tighter-embrace-with-nuclear-deal/articleshow/30540428.cms

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